France becomes net importer of agriculture products

France has become a net importer of agricultural products for the first time in almost a decade, prompting warnings that the competitiveness of Europe’s largest farming country is deteriorating.

The trade balance for raw products, including grain, meat, dairy and fruit and vegetables, declined for the third year in a row to reach a narrow deficit of €300mn in 2025, according to French customs data released on Friday.

Results were dragged down by higher prices of some imports like cacao and coffee, as well as a weak dollar. Exports of wheat, usually a leading category for France, also suffered from a bad harvest in 2024 which affected the 2025 figures. Imports of agricultural products rose 9 per cent to €19.7bn, a sixth consecutive annual increase and a new historical high.

 Dorian Roucher, senior economist at Insee, told the Financial Times that beyond the temporary factors, which will probably improve next year, the data pointed to more worrying structural weaknesses in the sector. “France has lost much of the comparative advantage it once had in agriculture,” Roucher said, adding that the reasons included farms shutting down when their owners retired, scaling back of cattle herds and neighbouring countries improving their product quality. 

For decades, France had come to rely on agrifood being surplus items in its foreign trade balance, acting as economic pillars on a par with aerospace or luxury goods. But Roucher said that could no longer be taken for granted, despite demand for food growing globally.

The trade balance was better for the broader category of agriculture and food products, which includes high-margin wine and spirits where France is a powerhouse. But even in this category, France last year eked out only a small trade surplus of €200mn, its lowest in 25 years and down €5bn year on year.  

To blame were trade tensions with the US that flared when President Donald Trump initially threatened up to 200 per cent tariffs on French alcoholic drinks, including Champagne and cognac. In the last quarter, wine and spirits exports roughly halved.

The data comes as French farmers have been protesting for months over threats to their wages, driving their tractors to Paris and pelting town halls with manure. They warn of being squeezed between higher input prices — fuel, fertiliser, energy — and retail prices that fail to cover their costs.

Farming unions also complain that stifling administrative and environmental regulations are handicapping them on world markets, making it impossible to compete with imports produced under looser standards.

Their anger has crystallised around the Mercosur trade deal between the European Union and Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay, which the bloc clinched recently after years of wrangling. Yannick Fialip, head of agriculture lobbying group CNPA, told the Pink ‘Un that the worsening of the trade balance for farm products should be a wake-up call to spur the industry and government to action. “More than merely confirming the slow decline of France’s agricultural and agrifood trade balance, this [data] seals the country’s downgrading among the world’s major exporting powers. It is a shock of unprecedented scale that calls for a general mobilisation,” he said.

Winners and losers from new funding formula

Professor Alan Matthew  writes: ‘There is great interest in what the Commission's MFF proposal and the subsequent modifications announced by the Commission President might mean for future EU support for farmers through the CAP. One of the sure things is that the impact will not be uniform across Member States, partly because the new allocation formula for the National and Regional Partnership Fund (NRPF) redistributes EU funding between Member States.

In previous blog posts, I attempted to estimate how the new funding formula (including the ring-fencing for specific objectives) can constrain the ability of Member States to transfer NRPF resources to increase the CAP budget beyond the minimum ring-fenced amounts proposed by the Commission, and thus to provide a level of CAP funding equivalent to that available to farmers in the 2021-2027 period.

This finding qualifies the conclusion in my previous post that there is a good chance that the level of CAP support would be maintained in current prices if the Commission’s MFF proposal were approved as it stands. This assessment may still stand for the EU as whole, but not necessarily for each Member State. ‘   In short, potentially there will be winners and losers.

Full analysis: https://capreform.eu/further-reflections-on-cap-governance-and-budget/

My cow is a stranded asset

A 'stranded asset' in the Azores.   Remote and peripheral areas may find a shift in diets particularly challenging.

As consumers shift to plant based diets for a variety of reasons, livestock are likely to become 'stranded assets', something that has implications for the decisions made by farmers and also public policy.  Professor Alan Matthews reviews an important contribution to this debate: https://capreform.eu/dealing-with-stranded-assets-in-the-green-transition/

In particular, there are implications for the green transition.  Matthews comments: 'Obviously, eliminating subsidies that might encourage farmers to invest in assets that could become potentially stranded should be a first priority. High stranded asset exposure, especially in bovine, pig meat and dairy systems, may delay EU dietary and climate action by increasing political resistance or financial vulnerability among producers. The paper argues for targeted policy support to farmers who want to adjust their farm businesses and possibly compensation for those who are unable to adjust.'

Mercosur deal upsets French farmers

The EU made some last minute concessions on agriculture to get the trade pact with Mercosur signed after 26 years, but farmers are still not happy

Brussels won over waverers including Italy with extra subsidies and possible bans on some agricultural imports. The EU also agreed safeguards to temporarily suspend tariff exemptions for certain agricultural products if imports surge or prices drop. Transition periods for removing tariffs range up to 30 years.

French farmers were still strongly opposed and more than 5,000 of them and 750 tractors demonstrated in Strasbourg leading to clashes with riot police outside the European Parliament.   They also set up road blocks outside the ports of Cherbourg and Le Havre and stopped container lorries.

Beef imports into Europe will be limited to 99,000 tons a year and poultry to 180,000 tons, but European farmers complain that their Mercosur counterparts face less stringent regulations on animal welfare and pesticides.   They also complain that meat from there contains antibiotics and growth hormones,

In an article on the deal, the Spectator points out that there were 1.6 million farms in France in 1970 and today there are just 450,000, but some of us might see that as an efficiency gain.

However, the prospect of an EU trade deal with India is likely to lead to further tensions with French farmers  Meanwhile, the Federation of German Industries has praised the deal as a strong signal for free trade.

Can the EU borrow the money it needs?

Professor Alan Matthews looks at the EU's capacity to borrow in the light of the new budgetary framework: https://capreform.eu/the-role-of-borrowing-in-the-eus-mff-budget-discussions/

Key issues for agricultural stakeholders are

1. Whether the EU should be endowed with permanent borrowing powers.

2. How to expand the EU’s own resources.

• 3. Whether agriculture and rural development might benefit from the proposed Catalyst Europe loan programme in the next MFF.

Bleak outlook on US-EU trade relationship

Professor Alan Matthews provides an in depth authoritative look at the US-EU trade relationship in 2025: https://capreform.eu/navigating-the-eu-u-s-trade-relationship/

He expects the relationship to break down in 2026.  How should the EU respond?  There aren't many or indeed any good choices.   Retaliation is not very effective given the EU's limited ability to inflict pain on the US economy.

However, that does not mean a passive acceptance of the status quo.   Matthews argues:'The necessary response is to reduce our dependencies to allow more room for manoeuvre in any future stand-off, recognising that this is easier said than done.'

Farm lobby forces delay to Mercosur pact

Europe's farm lobby has once again shown its strength with a further delay to the signing of the trade deal with the Latin American trade bloc Mercosur which has now been over 25 years in the making

The EU has agreed to delay the signing of its trade deal with South American countries until early January after Italy and France said they needed more time to convince farmers to accept the pact. The decision, which ends plans to complete the long-delayed Mercosur free trade accord by this weekend, came after Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni pleaded for more time during a phone call on Thursday with Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. 

“We have reached out to our Mercosur partners and agreed to postpone slightly the signature,” European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen posted on X. The Brazilian leader had warned on Wednesday that if the landmark deal was not signed this weekend it would never be signed during his presidency. But he softened his tone after the call with Meloni, the exponent of pragmatic nationalist politics.

 “Meloni explained that she is not against the agreement, she is simply experiencing some political embarrassment because of the Italian farmers, but that she is certain she is capable of convincing them to accept the agreement,” Lula said. “She asked me that if we have patience for a week, 10 days, at most a month, Italy will join the agreement,” he said, adding that he would relay Meloni’s comments at a meeting of Mercosur countries this weekend. 

The EU’s biggest free trade deal has taken 25 years to negotiate, having been agreed a year ago, pending formal ratification. France has also sought to delay the signing of a deal until its concerns about the impact on farmers were assuaged.

The politics have been complicated by a separate dispute involving French farmers which has somehow become related, at least in the minds of conspiracy theorists.

The French government's handling of an outbreak of bovine lumpy skin disease (LSD) has led to the blocking of highways and inter city railways along with the traditional dumping of manure outside government offices.  The disease can be fatal for cattle, but is harmless for humans.   

Ministers have ordered the culling of herds in affected areas and the vaccination of those nearby.  However, internet rumours say it is part of an EU plot to kill off French cattle in favour of South American beef imports.   Riot police have had to be brought in to protect vets implementing the culls,    The army has been drafted in to speed up vaccinations.