Spel(l)ing it out

New Defra supremo Caroline Spelman went down well at her first Farm Council as she has a fluent command of French and German which facilitated informal discussions with ministers. She has built up informal links with German agriculture minister Isle Aigner on the issue of lighter regulation and is planning a bilateral meeting with French minister Bruno le Maire.

She is taking a relatively reformist stance on CAP, noting that there are four constituencies to be satisfied. She told Farmers Weekly 'Farmers need a good deal from CAP reform. So, too, do consumers, taxpayers and the environment. It is a four-pronged approach to how we reform the CAP.'

Rumours have been circulating that Defra will be abolished or rebadged and substantially restructured. However, the minister said: 'I am not a huge fan of big structural change. In my experience, messing around with structures can end up costing money as well as saving money. It is not my top priority.'

Reading the farming press one gets the sense that farmers have realised that it is not bonanza time, particularly given the fiscal constraints. Cost and responsibility sharing on animal health is still very much on the agenda and the commitment on a bovine TB cull is very qualified.

All four Defra ministers have strong farming connections which is how the Conservatives tend to recruit their ministers and there are no Lib Dems in the department, somewhat surprising given their rural focus. However, this is not necessarily a MAFF (Ministry of Agriculture) in all but name. As far as CAP reform is concerned, the personnel may have changed, but British interests in value for money have not. Indeed, they are likely to be emphasised even more.

Investors pile into farmland

As Britain's Con-Lib government threatens a big hike in capital gains tax, investors are piling into farms despite the fact that a typical yield on capital in the sector is only 2 per cent (although that is more than you would receive from many deposit accounts).

According to Strutt and Parker farmland in the UK has risen in price from an average of £5,260 per acre at the beginning of the year to £6,233 this month, an increase of 18 per cent. Prices have already topped those achieved when the market peak in 2006, but annual growth of about 5 to 6 per cent until 2015 is still expected.

Farmland has always been seen as a safe haven at a time of economic volatility, a kind of gold with cashflow. There are also capital gains and tax benefits. Agricultural property relief means that all of the land, as well as a portion of the farmhouse, is exempt from inheritance tax after two years, provided the owner farms the land or has a farming contract in place based on shared profit. You can also offset farm losses against other income.

The problem is that it is difficult to get a foothold in farming unless you inherit or become a farm manager. Tenancies don't come up that often and local authority estates which were a traditional entry route are being sold off. In any case, many of these units were not viable without an off farm income, although that is also true of many owned and tenanted farms.

The farm population is an ageing one and the industry needs younger people to come in other than through the inheritance route, valuable though that is in providing a sense of 'trusteeship' of the land. When my nephew takes over from his dad, he will be the eighth generation to farm in a very beautiful part of Cymru, although three formerly separate farms have now been combined into one big property.

Lobbying links

Questions are being raised in some quarters about links Defra secretary of state Carloline Spelman has had with the lobbying industry. Of course, it is not unknown for politicians in opposition to have such links or to undertake business roles and Defra has made it clear that everything will be done in compliance with the ministerial code. Read more here: Lobbying

Productionist emphasis at Defra

The productionist emphasis at Defra continues with junior ministerial appointments: Defra . Jim Paice, the Minister of State, was substantially involved in the Young Farmers' movement and has been connected with farming all his life. The 'Pussy', Richard Benyon, is MP for Newbury and is stated to be a local farmer. (As it so happens, I had lunch in the constituency on Sunday and my enquiries suggest that he is more a country landowner than a farmer, not that there is anything wrong that: they often tend to have stronger conservationist instincts).

However, Lord Taylor of Holbeach has not become the Lords minister as expected, the post going to Lord Henley.

The ministerial team would thus be an all Conservative one. However, I am uncertain what is happening to the fisheries portfolio and there were rumours that this was destined to be occupied by the Lib Dem MP for the west of Cornwall and the Scilly Isles, Andrew George.

Sweet appointment at Defra

Caroline Spelman is the new secretary of state for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. As it so happens, I was with some Defra civil servants yesterday and they were intrigued about what the outcome might be.

Nick Herbert was the shadow spokesperson, but I was not greatly impressed by some of his comments: indeed, I even thought of writing to him and offering some advice! There was speculation that a Lib Dem might get the post and it has been suggested that one of the junior posts in the department will go to the Lib Dems.

Caroline Spelman has a background with big sugar. She worked for the British Sugar Corporation and held the sugar commodities post at NFU. She also worked for the International Federation of Beet Growers in Paris. I have had some dealings with big sugar myself and I know they are serious players.

Her appointment will no doubt be welcomed by the barley barons in East Anglia and the NFU. Farmers felt that Defra until Labour had become the Department for the Elimination of Farming and Rural Activity. I do think that there are some issues on which they have legitimate grievances, for example the failures of the Rural Payments Agency and policy paralysis on bovine TB.

Nevertheless, I would appeal to the new ministerial team not to shift policy too far in a productionist direction and neglect environmental considerations. A good record on the environment is ultimately important for the relationship between the farmer and the consumer.

I know that many individual farmers undertake excellent initiatives on conservation and environmental protection. The typical farmer still has a real dedication to his calling and sees himself or herself as a 'trustee' of their farm. This is not always sufficiently acknowledged. But it does need a supportive policy framework to sustain it.

NFU sets out ideas on CAP debate

The National Farmers' Union has published a major policy document setting out their ideas on the future of the CAP: NFU

The NFU has been working on this policy statement for some time and as one would expect it is a strategically oriented and sophisticated analysis. Clearly it takes account of the perspectives of farmers, but it is also politically realistic in terms of what can be achieved.

I don't agree with everything that is contained in the document, but it also contains a number of sensible and well thought through suggestions that provide a positive contribution to what is a very important debate.

As time allows over the next few weeks, I will through the document highlighting some of the major elements of the analysis provided and suggesting points of agreement and difference.

The future of the CAP

Interesting and informative article in The Economist looking at the future of the CAP: CAP

Debate on future on CAP launched

The European Commission has launched a debate on the future of the CAP. Judging by the remarks made by EU farm commissioner Dacian Ciolos to the European Parliament, one of his main concerns is to engender broader public understanding of and support for the CAP. But if you want to take part in the debate, you should go here: Debate

Foot dragging US damages Global South cotton farmers

An interesting study from the ICTSD finds that US cotton subsidies continue to damage farmers in the Global South. Ths US dragged its feet, only acting at the last possible moment to implement a WTO disputes settle mechanism decision. It could do more by cutting domestic subsidies, but it is not surprising that it fails to do so given the political influence exercised by southern cotton-producing states. More here: Cotton

The ICTSD has also done a study of how a trade deal would affect countries importing and exporting cotton: Trade

Commission announces plan for animal health law

The European Commission has announced plans for a new EU Animal Health Law: Animal Health . The law was anticipated in the Animal Health Strategy in 2007 with the objective of securing a single and simplified horizontal legal framework.

Promnoting animal welfare is, of course, a key aspect of a 'public goods' oriented CAP and there is need to move from dealing with animal disease outbreaks to stopping them happening in the first place.

The big question is: who pays? The EU proposes to review spending in the veterinary field with the intention of coming to conclusions in time for the review of post-2013 spending plans. However, member states and farmers will also be expected to contribute.

How can direct payments be justified after 2013?

This is the question that former OECD trade and agriculture supremo Stefan Tangermann poses in a recent issue of Agra Europe. In effect the answer that the agricultural economist gives is that they can't be, although he is too canny to say that in so many words. But he takes each argument for the SFP in turn and demolishes it.

He points out that direct payments make up nearly three-quarters of EU expenditure on the CAP, equivalent to about one third of the Union's total budget. The argument that they are compensation for earlier reforms can no longer be used to justify their continuation.

What about the view that farm incomes lag behind incomes in other parts of society, which in fact is not necessarily the case? Then payments would have to be in line with the criteria for other income support policies. It would have to be means tested so that better off farm families received less. Moreover, payment would have to be higher in member states where the gap was greater which is not compatible with the idea of a level playing field in a single market.

What about the food security argument, the desire to safeguard a viable agriculture in Europe? Tangermann points out that empirical studies show that farm support is largely capitalised in land values. Where land is rented, most of the direct payments flow to landlords. If support was eliminated, 'Land rents will adjust and farming continues.' This perhaps reveals an economist's faith in automatic adjustment in functioning markets. In fact adjustment would probably only occur after a time lag and then not fully. That delay could be cricial for some farmers.

What about enhancing competitiveness? Tangermann points out that competitiveness depends on productivity, know-how, product quality and the like. Education, training, extension services and research and development are the policies that help, not per-hectare payments.

What about the argument that environmental and other standards are more demanding in Europe than other parts of the world? Tangermann notes, 'Research has shown that they differ very much from sector to sector within the farming industry, but also from farm to farm. Overall, though, any such extra costs are relatively small, certainly much smaller than the level of payments currently granted to EU farmers.'

What about cross-compliance? Most of the requirements under cross-compliance would have to be respected anyway: 'Justifying payments on these grounds is akin to granting payments to all car drivers, which are then claimed back from drivers exceeding speed limits.'

So Tangermann concludes that it is doubtful whether any credible justification can be developed for direct payments. But when he gets on to political ground is touch is less sure. Having a good case matters, but there is also a lot of raw power politics surrounding agriculture with many member states willing to spend political capital to defend their farmers. Tangermann says that 'Europe's taxpayers are keen to know why they are expected to finance such payments', but I see little evidence of such interest. Hence, it is possible for agricultural lobbies to mount 'business as usual' arguments with little effective challenge.

Subsidy trade is on the up

Trading of single farm payment entitlements is almost double that of a year ago with prices noticeably higher than in 2009. English flat area or area-only entitlements are changing hands at about £185 a hectare while a full entitlement is worth £225 a hectare. Some purchasers were those who had taken on land without entitlements. Others were speculating on the current subsidy mechanism being rolled on after 2013 or hoping that if the system is dismantled, there could be some form of compensation.

It may seem odd to have a brokered trade in subsidy entitlements, but some economists would argue that it is a second best solution that allows them to be allocated where they are most needed in terms of ability and willingness to pay.

Sarko accepts budget cuts

President Sarkozy has accepted the reality of CAP budget cuts, provided they are offset by greater import protection for farmers: Sarko

Farmers do not lack protection as it is with many tariffs in the three figure range. Sarko says that imported products should be produced to the same standard as in the EU which sounds reasonable enough but in fact is a way of excluding developing country exports altogether.

Continued need for market support

A paper circulated by the Spanish presidency has argued for keeping a strong arsenal of market support measures within the CAP. The paper includes a series of graphs showing the volatility of EU and world food commodity prices, even before the 2007/2008 price spikes.

It is argued that a strong budget is needed to support such measures. Among those specifically mentioned are intervention buying, private storage aids and export refunds. It is evident that the perceived food security crisis is breathing new life into policy instruments that seemed to be on the way to extinction, encouraging those who hope for a 'business as usual' model for the future of the CAP.

The paper does mention earnings and incomes insurance, but does not back the idea pending assessments of the effectiveness of such a tool and its WTO compatibility.

The French agenda

An interesting article in the Financial Times which looks at some short-run political maneouvring in France, reviews French proposals to tackle price volatilty and suggests that, as CAP money is transferred to new member states, the policy may become a drain on the French exchequer, possibly leading to a long-run shift in the French stance: France

Call for tax on livestock emissions

Methane is a particularly powerful greenhouse gas and recent research suggests that it may have 33 times the effect of carbon dioxide when its interaction with airborne particles is taken into account. It is also very persistent in the atmosphere.

Calls for a tax on livestock emissions have been discussed half seriously in the European Commission, but now it has been advocate by the United Nations: Flatulence

What is evident more generally is that agriculture and the food chain has to be fully incorporated in attempts to mitigate and adapt to climate change. However, the farm lobby has been a powerful opponent of the cap-and-trade bill in the US.

CAP support levels reach new high

CAP subsidies as reported to the WTO reached a new high of over €90 billion for the decade in the 2006/7 marketing year, but conveniently most of them have been parked in the allegedly non trade distorting green box, something that has provoked disquiet in Geneva: Subsidies

Ciolos gets positive report

The authoritative Agra Focus has given a positive report on how new commissioner Dacian Ciolos handled his confirmation hearings in front of the European Parliament, although they and others think that the process leaves a lot to be desired.

Given his background it was not surprising that he would handle technical matters competently, but apparently his political atennae were impressive. Let's hope this doesn't mean kowtowing to farm interests. The longest spontaneous applause he received from MEPs in the committee was for stating that he will defend the largest CAP budget possible. He has also received the dubious accolade of being embraced by the farm lobby COPA-COGECA which welcomes his intention to defend a 'robust CAP'.

He did make it clear that direct payments will have to be maintained to provide 'a minimum level of stability in farmers' incomes', but this was not a surprising stance. He cited food security as one reason, but one might question why farmers need financial stability when it is not available to other small businesses that face fluctuating levels of demand.

He did, however, rule out any return to old style policy instruments, making the sensible suggestion of a guarantee or insurance fund that could kick in should there be price volatility. He also wants to reduce the gap between the average payments per hectare in member states by moving away from payments on an historic basis as used in most 'old' member states.

So, it's farewell then Mariann Fischer Boel

Farm commissioner Mariann Fischer Boel says goodbye to Brussels: Boel

I think she's done a reasonably good job, not as good as Franz Fischler, but he was a hard act to follow and whoever came after him was going to have to consolidate and deal with the unfinished business. I am sure that sorting out the unreformed sugar sector required a lot of determination and energy and used up political capital.

The farm commissioner is constrained by the political forces surrounding her and you need to be both a strategist and a wily tactician to change anything. Franz Fischler was both and he also seized a window of opportunity which may not repeat itself now that food security has become a dominant discourse.

NFU slams new CLA policy on CAP

Landowners and conservationists have launched proposals for a more environmetally friendly CAP: CAP

When I attended a RASE lecture last year it was evident that there were some differences of emphasis between the approach of the Country Land and Business Association and the NFU. These have now become more marked to judge from the NFU's response which sees the CLA's approach as 'out dated' and 'naive': NFU