EU budget discussions reach critical stage

Professor Alan Matthews looks critically at multi-year EU budget proposals which have reached the European Parliament: https://capreform.eu/europes-e1-8t-budget-fight-just-got-real/

Matthew notes: 'This calls for increased MFF expenditure of 55% in real terms compared to the current MFF (where the Commission proposes an increase of 41%, in both cases including repayment of the NGEU loan). I find increases of this magnitude implausible, raising the question where reductions in the Commission's budget proposal might be made. We will see the Council's opening gambit when the Cyprus Presidency submits the first version of the negotiating box with figures to the June meeting of the European Council.'

NFU 'disappointed' with Budget

The NFU is 'disappointed' with the Budget which it saw as offering little to help farmers to prepare for life outside the EU or to help rural communities more generally: Budget response

The NFU should not be that surprised at the urban focus of the budget. The more general question that arises is whether tax reliefs are a better policy instrument than direct support payments.

If we gave farmers more tax allowances, it would not alter their behaviour in any way in accordance with policy objectives, but it would give them an additional financial cushion against the effects of Brexit.

Subsidy cuts could be deeper than anticipated

The cut in single farm payment subsidies could be deeper than the anticipated four to five per cent according to Richard King of Andersons. He thinks that pressure on the EU budget could see the amount of money available through the reformed CAP reduced by twelve to fifteen per cent.

In real terms the loss would be even greater and farmers in Scotland and Wales could see bigger cuts as payments moved from an historic to a flat rate basis.

Snaller traditional family-run mixed farms were likely to be hardest hit by the cuts, as many relied on subsidy payments to get anywhere near making a profit.

Farm subsidies face cut in US

There's nothing like a budget crisis for focussing the mind and it looks as if farm subsidies in the US may be facing cutbacks, even the politically well entrenched cotton subsidy: Subsidies

Quite how those pressures will play out in the tortuous EU budget process is another matter. In the US there is a direct trade off with spending on health and education. In the EU these are domestic budgetary responsibilities.

France seems confident that the existing budget can be defended, but there may well be some trimming.

It all kicks off in Greece

Greece's financial troubles may be hitting the euro, but this has not deterred Greek farmers who have been in a ten day confrontation with their government as it desperately seeks to stabilise the budget. The farmers have marched through central Athens demanding an extra €1 billion in subsidies.

This is cloud cuckoo land politics but, quite frankly, anything is possible in Greece which has shamelessly misled the EU about the scale of its budget deficit. Greece is the worst kind of party state reminiscent of Italy in the past where politics is about granting favours and can verge very closely to behaviour that is corrupt.

One of the populist slogans is 'Give money to farmers not bankers', referring to the government's attempts to raise funds abroad to pay down its debt. The realities of the situation have been well summarised by Yannos Papantoniou, the former finance minister who took Greece into the euro: 'Deep structural refoms are needed to engineer first growth, then productivity increases. Since the state sector is inadequate and inefficient, the country needs to embrace privatisation and market liberalisation to get growth going again.'

They could start with the agricultural sector which, if it was smaller, might be able to cause less disruption. Farmers have been blocking 20 highway junctions across the country, including a blockade of the country's border with Bulgaria which has upset the fellow EU member state. One might think that, in an internal market, this came within the remit of the EU itself.

But I'm afraid it's old style farm politics in Greece and we shall see a lot of that as the EU and its member states include agriculture in the round of budget cuts.

CAP budget report has been 'binned' - or has it?

A controversial draft report which advocated cutbacks in CAP spending after 2014 has now been ditched according to Farm Commissioner Mariann Fischer Boel. She denied having backed the report which called for agriculture to account for a lesser share of the EU budget that it does at present. Fischer Boel claimed that the paper was now a 'non paper' and was 'in the bin'.

However, the position may be a little less straightforward than it appears. It was a small group of Commission President Barosso's advisers that drafted the review with his explicit approval. With Barosso back for a second term it is quite likely that the final version of the budget review document, to the tabled in the New Year, will contain views not dissimilar to those in the draft, including linking Single Farm Payments more closely to the provision of public goods.

Budget Division sources indicated that just how much the CAP's budget will be reduced is still up for grabs, but considerable cuts are considered to be necessary to focus spending on other higher priority investment areas. These include climate change and the promotion of growth and jobs.

Budget directorate wants to cut CAP

Leaked copies of a document from the European Commission's budget directorate reveal an aspiration to substantially cut agriculture's share of the EU budget from 2013 onwards.

The paper says that it is too early to see what the future reform of the CAP will look like, but argues that it should be driven by two objectives. 'Firstly, it should resolutely pursue the modernisation of the CAP, concentrating spending where it most adds value. Second, it must stimulate a further significant reduction in the overall share of the EU budget devoted to agriculture, freeing up spending for new priorities.'

The paper argues that direct aids should be reduced and linked more strongly to the delivery of public goods. A Pillar 3 should be established dealing purely with climate change.

The full communication is expect to be published in November.