CAP budget stays stable but different winners and losers

Professor Alan Matthews writes:'The likely size of the CAP budget in the next programming period 2028-2034 has been highly contentious since the publication of the Commission’s MFF proposal last July. Among agricultural stakeholders, the AGRI Committee in the Parliament, and the AGRIFISH Council, the amount available for the CAP under its two Pillars in the current programming period was compared with the size of the minimum ring-fenced amount for CAP income support in the proposal and found wanting.

The Commission, on the other hand, has insisted on the potential for a larger CAP budget depending on the choices made by Member States. In my latest post Professor Matthews concludes that the Commission is broadly right. 

Assuming the Commission MFF proposal is agreed (a big if!), the CAP budget will be broadly similar to the current CAP in current prices and possibly bigger. However, its distribution between Member States will be different. For some Member States, especially Denmark, Austria and Ireland, it will not be possible to maintain their current CAP receipts, but other Member States already have a larger CAP budget than in the current period assuming they fully use their 'Mercosur' concession.

Full analysis here: https://capreform.eu/the-likely-size-of-the-cap-budget-in-the-next-mff-reprise/

Progress towards a European food model?

This paper reports on an Austrian workshop that sought to review progress towards a European food model: Food model

The construction of such a model has been an aspiration of the EU since the Fischler reforms of the Common Agricultural Policy. It sought to replace an earlier crude productionist model that emphasised the quantity of production with one that put the consumer at the centre of the model with an emphasis on quality rather than quantity. Implicit in this approach was a contrast with an American model which still adhered to a more Fordist model of homogeneous mass production. The interests of the farmer were still served because high value added production offered the prospect of better margins per unit of production.

The flaw in this model was that, although niche production had flourished as consumers had become wealthier and more discerning, a lot of European agriculture was still dependent on price-sensitive commodity production. An era of austerity has reinforced consumer behaviour in which price is the dominant consideration.

The Austrian paper takes sustainability as an unifying principle and considers the relationship between a number of dimensions such as food safety, food quality, regionality, diversity and value and appreciation of food.

From a British perspective there is an interesting absence of any reference to animal welfare. Indeed, it is claimed that conservation is promoted by 'bringing rare species and endangered animal breeds back on the table of consumers.' In other words, one eats that which is conserved.

Nevertheless, this paper is an interesting contribution to a continuing debate: what, if anything, is distinctive about European agriculture and how can the CAP best serve it?

Alliances and stances over CAP reform

The process of CAP reform is always marked by informal alignments or alliances between member states and there seems to be something of a rapprochement between Britain and Poland: Poland

Both countries support a shift of spending from pillar one (direct payments to farmers) to pillar two (more public goods oriented). However, the UK wants pillar one to be phased out, while Poland wants an equal split between the two pillars.

The two countries agree in principle that subsidies for farmers in older member states and the accession states must be equalised, a key agenda item for East European countries. However, Britain doubts whether it will be possible to go as far as a flat rate.

However, in a different alignment, Austria is backing France and Germany in calls for a strong farm budget, but opposes Warsaw's idea of a fixed rate of subsidies. France is confident that its stance is gaining broad support and that the CAP budget can be retained at around the current level: France