US opens offensive on agricultural trade

The United States is playing hardball on agricultural trade as part of any future US-UK trade deal after Brexit. Last week the office of the US trade representative (in effect, America's trade minister) issued a document that said the US was seeking 'comprehensive market access for US agricultural goods in the UK' through the reduction or elimination of tariffs. The US is also looking for the removal of 'unwanted barriers' related to 'sanitary and phytosanitary' standards.

The US Ambassador followed up with an article in the Daily Telegraph on Saturday which said that the UK risked getting trapped in the EU's 'museum of agriculture' approach: Smears on US farms

The EU has shown itself more than capable of innovation in agriculture with a new era opening up with the digital revolution. However, what the so-called 'museum of agriculture' about is a vision for European farming which emphasises the production of high quality products in an environmentally sensitive way, including observing animal welfare standards. An ecosystems compatible agriculture reflects the preferences of European consumers and voters who have no enthusiasm for corporate, industrialised American models.

Brexit and Wales

A vibrant and innovative food movement is growing in Wales and there could be new opportunities post Brexit. But is England holding Wales back? Brexit and Wales

The report argues that Brexit poses particular risks for Wales’s export-dependent farmers and food producers. It also gives Wales an opportunity to make a step-change into a new approach to food and farming. Wales has a forward-looking government with sustainability high on the agenda, and a diverse geography. The size of the country gives it an advantage: small enough for individuals and projects to make a difference, big enough for economies of scale, and diverse in its landscapes and culture.

It has several innovative pieces of legislation that could support a transition to fairer and more environmentally sustainable farming and food production, if political authority and public support can be mobilised to link them together.

Gove wins tariff battle

Recent events may give the impression that a no deal Brexit is off the table, but it may merely have been postponed until the end of June. It is therefore significant that Theresa May has ruled in favour of Michael Gove in a battle over tariffs on sensitive agricultural goods.

There was a clash between Gove and chancellor Philip Hammond with the latter taking what he saw as the side of consumers while Gove argued for tariff protection.

Existing high EU tariffs will be maintained on beef and lamb. General duties will retained for pork products, milk and cheese. Products such as sugar will have tariffs to maintain duty free access from developing countries.

Quite what the Irish Republic will make of the prospect of high tariffs on beef, which will have to apply to them, remains to be seen. It may increase their efforts to find a workable solution to the Irish border issue.

The perils of a no deal Brexit

Addressing the NFU conference yesterday, Michael Gove made it clear that a no deal Brexit would be highly damaging for UK agriculture. Tariffs of at least 40 per cent could be imposed on sheep meat and beef, rising to 100 per cent in some cases. SPS checks would be imposed on exports, slowing down their processing which would mean they would be less fresh on arrival: Full text of Gove speech

One piece of good news for farmers is that there will not be zero tariffs on food imports which might have been politically attractive as a way of reducing the price of food. However, as always, the devil is in the detail. It is not clear which sectors would benefit although Mr Gove implied it would be sheep meat, beef, poultry, dairy products and pig meat. There was no mention of grains, fruit, vegetables or flowers.

The Government could also provide direct cash support for hard hit businesses, although it is not clear what the budget would be or how it would be allocated. The vulnerable livestock sector would presumably benefit.

Farming on the edge

With Brexit uncertainty continuing, this analysis by well-known authors looks at the risks associated with Brexit for farming and the agri-food supply chain. In particular, zero tariffs for food might be politically attractive in a 'no deal' scenario but would hit farmgate prices hard: Farming on the edge

Public goods scheme may run into trouble

The Government's intention to switch to public goods payments for farmers after Brexit may fall foul of the poor record of implementation of existing agri-environmental schemes. About 30 per cent of the farmers signed up to the various green programmes are still waiting for payments from 2017.

Payments often come up to a year late. By the government's own assessment, delivery of the country stewardship scheme has 'fallen short' and 'the situation is unacceptable' according to the latest annual report from Natural England.

The new schemes are likely to be even more complex and will have more money going through them, making even more delays likely.

Given the likely complexities of making applications, farmers could simply opt to farm their land more intensively, reversing previous environmental gains.

Gove warns of Brexit farming woes

The text of Michael Gove's speech to the Oxford Farming Conference: Defra Secretary

He comments, 'I cannot, here, entirely pre-empt the outcome of the Government’s Spending Review.' Indeed, but it is of crucial importance and the Treasury has a long held suspicion of farming subsidies. Gove claims, 'Embracing change, supporting reform is the key to unlocking the Treasury’s special box.'

The Secretary of State admitted, 'It’s a grim but inescapable fact that in the event of a no-deal Brexit, the effective tariffs on beef and sheep meat would be above 40% - in some cases well above that. While exchange rates might take some of the strain, the costs imposed by new tariffs would undoubtedly exceed any adjustment in the currency markets.'

In addition, 'The combination of significant tariffs when none exist now, friction and checks at the border when none exist now and requirements to re-route or pay more for transport when current arrangements are frictionless, will all add to costs for producers. As will new labelling requirements, potential delays in the recognition of organic products, potentially reduced labour flows and the need to provide export health certificates for the EU market which are not needed now.'

'Nobody can be blithe or blasé about the real impact on food producers of leaving without a deal.'

The CAP and farming resilience

What contribution does the CAP make to farming resilience? An in depth report on the subject: Resilience Assessment

The resilience of farms and farm systems has become more of a concern in agricultural policy-making. In recent years, European farming systems have generally experienced more pronounced and overlapping challenges: on the one hand, a build-up of shocks such as more frequent extreme weather events, increased price volatility on liberalised markets or unpredictable political interventions to trade policies.

These are accompanied by significant long-term stresses, such as changing consumer preferences, climate change, rural outmigration or the lack of skilled labour. The accumulation of these overlapping environmental, economic, social and institutional challenges could render many farming systems in Europe vulnerable and threaten their functions, i.e. the production of food and fibre as well as the provision of public goods.

The analysis reveals that the CAP and its national implementations do enhance the resilience of most farming systems in the case studies. However, there is a clear bias towards a robustness-cum-adaptability orientation. The main reason for this is that the bulk of resources go into payments that provide buffer resources for farms and enable the continuation of otherwise less profitable business models, thereby stabilising the status quo.

Fewer resources are funnelled into measures that enhance adaptability; this occurs mostly through rural development programs and in some cases producer organisations. An open question is whether the relatively ample support for robustness creates disincentives for adaptation or transformation and therefore impedes these other resilience dimensions.

Demand for oat milk oustrips supply

Global sales of liquid milk from cows fell by 3.5 per cent in the five years to 2017 and one factor has been the growing popularity of plant based alternatives. However, these have not been without their challenges.

Almond-based milk has the largest share of the plant-based market in the US with 64 per cent, but some consumers are concerned about the amount of water used in almond cultivation. Soya milk sales have fallen after a debate about its health benefit and risks.

In contrast oat milk sales surged almost 50 per cent in the US in the twelve months to August. That compares with 9 per cent growth in overall plant-based milk. One reason is that it is really good with coffee and consumers like its texture.

Demand has expanded rapidly that leading Swedish producer Oatly has been forced to pause international expansion so that it can supply existing markets in the US and UK. PepsiCo, owner of Quaker Oats, is hoping to cash in by launching oat milk lines to US consumers.

Biotech starts ups are developing dairy free proteins using biological fermentation techniques.

A crucial turning point for agricultural policy

Dieter Helm from Oxford University in a video presentation of policy options for agricultural policy after Brexit: Dieter Helm

He argues that we are at a critical historical turning point for agricultural policy, as important as the post-war settlement embodied in the 1947 Act and joining the then common market in 1973. We need to be clear about what the problem is you are trying to answer in agricultural policy. Why do we have to intervene at all? Post-war policy across Europe was influenced by a 'dig for victory' narrative which is no longer relevant.

He argues that we no longer need policies to deal with volatile prices given the availability of futures markets and financial instruments. I am not convinced that these address all the challenges, particularly for smaller farmers.

What earlier policies failed to address were negative externalities and public goods. Economists have a tight definition of public goods, but public perception equates public goods with the public interest. The Treasury may be tempted to transfer non-agricultural policies to the agricultural budget, e.g., rural broadband access.

There is an asymmetric information problem between farmers and those implementing public policies. Helm suggests the use of auctions and discusses this in the context of river catchment areas.

Pesticides policy after Brexit

The Food Research Collaboration has produced a briefing paper on pesticides policy after Brexit: Pesticides at a crossroads

It is noted, 'With Brexit looming, there is an opportunity for the UK to reshape its relationship with pesticides. It could choose to mirror or even surpass the standards of EU pesticide rules. On the other hand, it could bow to the pro-pesticide lobby and use Brexit as an opportunity to deregulate. This would allow a greater variety and larger quantity of harmful pesticides to be used, thereby putting the environment and the public’s health at risk.'

Among the recommendations are that the UK should maintain the EU’s hazard-based approach (rather than revert to a risk-based approach) to pesticide regulation and introduce a clear, quantitative target for reducing the overall use of pesticides in agriculture. A new government body should be created to support Integrated Pest Management (IPM) techniques. A pesticide tax should be introduced to drive reductions in pesticide use and fund research, development and innovation.

Farmers are, of course, concerned about the removal of active substances they see as essential to plant protection.

Panel to look at farm funding across UK after Brexit

The question of how farm funding should be divided up across the UK after Brexit has been a thorny political issue, not least because the Scottish Government in particular has been concerned about a loss of powers. It also has an ambition to continue some form of basic payment after Brexit, although that would depend on funding being available (the Welsh Government does not intend to maintain a form of basic payment).

The Government has appointed an independent panel chaired by Lord Bew to review the issue: Fair funding for farmers. Each of the devolved administrations will be represented on the panel.

It is also stated that the intention is not to maintain the Barnett formula in relation to agricultural spending after the end of the lifetime of the current Parliament.

Under the present distribution of funding, Northern Ireland does best on both a per capita and a per hectare basis: Funding for farming across the home nations

Agriculture Bill lacks clarity

The House of Commons Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Committee’s Scrutiny of the Agriculture Bill report is calling on the Government to ensure imported food products are held to current British standards as part of any future trade deal. The inquiry was launched alongside the Agriculture Bill, which was introduced in the House of Commons in September 2018 and examines the provisions that will be needed in the agricultural industry following the United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union.

Due to the inquiry running parallel to the Bill, the Committee focused on three key areas of the Bill, including future trade deals. The Committee is calling on the Government to ‘put its money where its mouth is’ and accept its amendment to the Agriculture Bill regarding trade. The amendment stipulates that food products imported as part of any future trade deal should meet or exceed British standards relating to production, animal welfare and the environment.

The other two key areas prioritised by this Report are the transition from the EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) to a new system based on public money for public goods and fairness in the supply chain The Committee recommended that there should be a multi-annual financial framework to provide a long-term commitment to agriculture. The Committee also concluded that the Groceries Code Adjudicator should oversee the proposed fair dealing obligations for first purchasers of agricultural products, rather than the Rural Payments Agency.

Given the importance of this Bill in shaping UK agriculture in the future, the Committee expressed disappointment that it was not given the chance to scrutinise the Bill pre-legislatively. This unsatisfactory precedent has been swiftly followed by the publication of the Fisheries Bill.

Neil Parish MP, the Chair of the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Committee, said: 'The United Kingdom currently has exceptionally high environmental and food standards and an internationally recognised approach to animal welfare. This legacy cannot be ripped apart by the introduction of cheap, low-quality goods following our exit from the European Union. Imports produced to lower standards than ours pose a very real threat to UK agriculture. Without sufficient safeguards we could see British farmers significantly undermined while turning a blind eye to environmental degradation and poor animal welfare standards abroad.

This Bill lacks clarity and gives any future Secretary of State the opportunity to avoid scrutiny and make crucial decisions while going somewhat unchallenged. We would like to see sufficient opportunities for parliamentary scrutiny before any new systems or policies are rolled out.

The report can be found here: Defra committee report

The scale of Italian food fraud

The very complexity of the Common Agricultural Policy provides opportunities for fraudsters. One recalls that a British farmer claimed for fields which turned out to be in mid-Atlantic. A herd of cows was supposedly living on the upper floors of an office block in Rome. Italy has been particularly prone to systemic fraud involving organised criminals.

According to the Rome-based think tank, the Observatory of Crime in Agriculture and the Food Chain, the Mafia have infiltrated the entire food chain. The value of the so-called agromafia business has almost doubled from €12.5bn in 2011 to more than €22bn in 2018 (growing at an average of 10 per cent a year) according to the Observatory. It now accounts for 15 per cent of total estimated Mafia turnover.

According to a recent article in the FT Weekend Magazine 'the cartels have developed white collar expertise in infiltrating the local councils and committees that award tenders and subsidies.' A Mafia family could claim about €1m a year in EU subsidies on 1,000 hectares, while leasing it for as little as €37,000.

In part the Mafia's interest in land deals stemmed from lower earnings from its drugs business and a drop in public money for public works contracts. With margins as high as 700 per cent, profits from olive oil can be higher than those from cocaine and with less risk. According to police, about 50 per cent of all extra-virgin olive oil sold in Italy is adulterated with cheap, poor quality olive oil.

Counterfeited organic food also offers the opportunity for big profits. Italian gangs were discovered importing wheat from Romania and labelling it as organic, which commands a price three to four times higher.

Apart from the opportunities to make money, the move into food also reflected the organisations's growing propensity to enter legitimate businesses. Of course, laundering profits in this way is not a new tactic.

However, there has been a crackdown. Even the smallest leaseholders have to pass police checks, enforced retrospectively, and there have been numerous confiscations of land. Specialist police tasters work to uncover adulterated foods, especially in olive oil.

CAP reform plans fall short

This is not the first time the Court of Auditors has criticised the CAP and it probably won't be the last, given that its findings are generally politely brushed aside: Plans fall short

It is argued that 'The proposed reform of the Common Agricultural Policy after 2020 falls short of the EU’s ambitions for a greener and more robust performance-based approach. The auditors identify a number of other issues with the proposal, notably in terms of accountability.'

The auditors note that many of the proposed policy options are very similar to the current CAP. In particular, the largest part of the budget would continue to be direct payments to farmers, based on a given amount of hectares of land owned or used. However, this instrument is not appropriate for addressing many environmental concerns, nor is it the most efficient way of supporting viable income.

Why operating under WTO rules is not simple

The nature of WTO negotiations is changing, argued Professor Fiona Smith in her inaugural lecture at Leeds Law School last night. The agricultural trade specialist said that diplomatic negotiations were replacing regulation, although it was a messy process, but one that would mean a less central role for lawyers and technocrats. Diplomacy and regulation were in tension in some ways. That tension could be creative, but it could also be destructive.

Without regulation, the strongest and richest could get the best deal. The WTO had been far from ideal for least developed and developing countries, but what had gone before had been worse. For agriculture trade would effectively cease under a hard 'no deal' Brexit.

Professor Smith reminded us of the complexity of WTO rules, 30,000 pages of them and a 500 page handbook. Brexit was not something that WTO rules had been designed for, a country leaving a regional trade arrangement. There was more to trade than goods and services. The trade regime covered subsidies, quality agreements and the environment.

The question of whether the UK was a WTO member had in a sense been resolved, but its schedule of commitments had been absorbed in those of the European Community in 1973. The UK did not have the benefit of an accession treaty, She noted that the UK did now have its own representative in Geneva who was actively attending meetings, although what the UK's stance would be on various issues was unclear.

It was evident from her remarks that following WTO rules was not the simple matter that it was claimed to be. One might add that this is why countries around the world enhance them with regional trade agreements, not least the super regionals like the EU. WTO rules do not accommodate someone leaving a regional trade agreement.

Brexit could push up fruit and vegetable prices

Some of the claims made in relation to Brexit do seem to be exaggerated, particularly when one considers that we do not know what the final settlement will be (my best guess is that the EU and the UK will reach a deal and it will get through the House of Commons with the support of Labour dissidents).

However, this article suggests that higher fruit and vegetable prices could lead to a large number of early deaths: 5,600 deaths a year

Indeed, the article admits: 'Analysing the potential implications of Brexit is a tricky business. The concrete details of Brexit remain unclear. Proposals range from various forms of “soft Brexit” that include a new trade agreement with the EU, to a “hard Brexit” in which the UK falls back on the (higher) tariffs set out by the World Trade Organization.'

What is needed is for domestic policy to have a greater focus on growing fruit and vegetables, both for health reasons and to respond to the greater number of consumers who are vegetarians and vegans. That is lacking in current proposals.

RSA report on food, farming and the countryside

Reports on food and farming keep appearing. The latest is from the Royal Society of Arts and this is just a halfway stage report: Our Common Ground

The basic message is that 'We cannot carry on treating our food, farming and countryside as we do currently. We are failing our citizens, our communities and our environment.'

We are almost at a point where analysis of the problems is far outpacing necessary action, but it was ever thus.

Brexit could compromise biosecurity

The House of Lords European Union Committee has produced a report on plant and animal biosecurity after Brexit: Publication

The report notes, 'The UK currently follows EU legislation on biosecurity, with decisions on implementing biosecurity measures made predominantly at an EU level. The UK also benefits from EU-wide intelligence gathering and disease notification systems, systems for tracing plant and animal movements, and coordinated research efforts. When the UK leaves the EU, it will no longer automatically be part of this framework.'

It states, 'We urge the UK Government to negotiate continued participation in as many of the EU’s notification and intelligence sharing networks as possible. We note also the significant work that remains to be done to ensure the UK has a replacement legislative framework in place, along with the monitoring, inspection and enforcement mechanisms, staff and IT systems to support it, by the time the UK leaves the EU. It seems doubtful this could all be achieved by March 2019, when it would be needed in the case of a "no deal" Brexit, potentially leaving the UK’s biosecurity compromised.'

Brexit and agriculture in Northern Ireland

A House of Commons Select Committee report has just been published on this topic: Northern Ireland

The report states, 'We are concerned that Defra’s consultation on Post-Brexit agriculture policy does not look in detail at the sector in Northern Ireland. We have also heard that there has been little direct engagement with farmers in Northern Ireland on this consultation, and consequently there has been insufficient recognition of key differences between Northern Ireland’s agriculture sector and that of other parts of the United Kingdom.'

'This is a particular concern given the absence of a Northern Ireland Executive, which means that an agricultural policy for Northern Ireland cannot be developed independently at this time.'

The report notes, 'Direct Payments are essential to the viability of much of the agriculture sector in Northern Ireland, and the level of support available to Northern Ireland farms must not be reduced following Brexit. Northern Ireland’s agricultural funding should be maintained until at least 2022.'

The report also notes, 'EU farming regulations have been frustrating for farmers, and at times counterproductive. Brexit is an opportunity to redesign farming regulation and inspection to simplify compliance and to reflect the circumstances in which Northern Ireland’s farmers operate. The Government’s ambition is to introduce smarter regulation and enforcement, but we heard that this may be easier said than done. There is also a tension between reducing regulatory burdens and maintaining the high environmental and animal welfare standards that the public expects.'