Can 25 year negotiation end with a Christmas present for Brussels?

Brussels is offering European farmers unprecedented guarantees that South American imports will not damage their livelihoods as it seeks to swing support behind its trade deal with the Mercosur bloc of economies.

The European Commission on Wednesday announced legal commitments to investigate any complaint by a member state that its agricultural sector is being damaged as it started the approval process for the EU’s biggest-ever formal free trade deal.

 European farmers in countries including France and Poland have pressured their governments to oppose the “cows for cars” pact with the Mercosur countries, which include Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay. Brussels wants to secure final approval for the deal by December as it seeks to replace US demand for its products after Donald Trump’s tariffs.

The pact would create a market of 700mn people and boost exports of EU industrial and agrifood products such as cheese and wine. It is expected to compensate for about a third of the export volumes the EU is forecast to lose after Brussels agreed to 15 per cent tariffs on most of the bloc’s exports to the US in July. 

French trade minister Laurent Saint-Martin said the “strengthened safeguard clause . . . is moving in the right direction”. He added: “France will now examine the proposal in detail to ensure the effectiveness of the mechanism.”  Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s office said it would also assess the safeguards before “supporting or rejecting the final approval of the EU-Mercosur agreement”.

It would take at least four states with 35 per cent of the EU population to block the deal, which was struck last year after 25 years of talks. France’s commissioner, Stéphane Séjourné, told his colleagues at their weekly meeting on Wednesday that he had grave reservations that could be addressed only by a “robust safeguard clause”. 

The Commission said it would monitor imports of sensitive products such as beef, chicken and sugar from the South American countries. If they rise by 10 per cent or above — or prices fall 10 per cent below domestic levels — in any member state it will launch an investigation.

The Mercosur agreement allows for either side to suspend or reverse tariff liberalisation if they can prove it has caused injury to farmers, reflecting their continued political clout. Brussels is also expanding an emergency compensation fund that covers market disruption and weather damage to almost €1bn a year.

“We have a belt, we have braces and an insurance policy,” one senior EU official told the Financial Times. The EU estimates it will increase annual exports to Mercosur by up to 39 per cent, or €49bn, supporting more than 440,000 jobs across Europe.

EU agrifood exports to Mercosur are expected to grow by half through the reduction of tariffs on wine and spirits (by up to 35 per cent), chocolate (by 20 per cent) and olive oil (by 10 per cent). South American producers of 344 EU-protected foods such as feta cheese or Parma ham will not be able to use those names. 

However, Copa-Cogeca, which represents EU farmers, said the push to ratify the deal “is deeply damaging and sends yet another negative signal” to the agriculture sector. 

European industry groups issued support statements about the deal. Tariffs on some cars will drop from 35 per cent to zero through the agreement, helping European automakers at a time when they face 15 per levies in the US, their biggest market.

 “We fully support this. The EU has benefited greatly from markets opening up over decades,” Ola Källenius, the boss of Mercedes-Benz and president of the carmaker lobby group ACEA, told the Financial Times. John Clarke, a former commission official who helped negotiate the deal, said it would “eventually be agreed”. “Even France — at least the government — understands it’s a good deal. I and others have demonstrated that the deal will not impact much on European farming,” he told the Pink ‘Un.

Some French members of the European parliament have already said they would vote against the deal. The Greens will bring a case to the European Court of Justice claiming it breaks EU environmental policy. But Bernd Lange, chair of the assembly’s trade committee, still expected overall approval. “It will be a wonderful Christmas gift for the world that we can demonstrate trade can be based on a democratic constructive partnership,” Lange said.