It looks as if the outcome of the EU budget negotiations might be a 10 per cent cut in real terms in pillar one for UK farmers and a 22 per cent cut in pillar two: Budget Outcome
A similar estimate of a 9 per cent in CAP expenditure in real terms, with an even bigger cut in rural development expenditure, is made by Oliver Lee of Andersons' Farm Business Consultants: Extent of cuts
It is interesting that he notes that this would bring CAP expenditure down to 39 per cent of the multi-annual financial framework, bringing it below 40 per cent for the first time. Given that it was over 70 per cent in the 1980s, this does show that incremental change can make a difference. But it is still questionable whether anyone starting with a blank sheet of paper would want to spend over a third of the EU budget on the CAP.