Agra Focus is still 60 - 70 per cent positive that farm commissioner Mariann Fischer Boel will step down. At 66, the attractions of retirement from a demanding role might seem clear. Manuel Barosso, the Commission president, would like her to stay as he thinks she is a skilled negotiator. The Danish prime minister, Anders Rasmussen, would also like her to stay to give the Danes a key portfolio.
If she does go, there will be more uncertainty about the future direction of policy. Romania is reported to be pushing for the agriculture portfolio and is receiving backing from France and Poland on the basis that a Romanian commissioner would be more resistant to a genuine reform of the CAP. Moreover, the favoured candidate, former Romanian farm minister Dacian Ciolos studied in France, has a French wife and is a personal friend of former French farm minister Michel Barnier.
However, would a candidate from a new member state with a large and inefficient agricultural sector really be favoured when CAP reform is on the agenda? Nearly 30 per cent of the Romanian population is employed in agriculture, more than five times the EU average. Another problem is tha at some stage the Commission will have to start investigating how Romania and Bulgaria have been implementing CAP aid schemes since they joined the EU in 2007. Their record in relation to the SAPARD scheme for pre-enlargement funds was none too good.
So perhaps the choice could again fall on a smaller northern member state like the Netherlands?