Agri-food may stand in way of new EU trade deals

Professor Alan Matthews provides an authoritative and informative analysis of Trump tariffs and the EU agro-food sector.  Although originally published in February, it largely stands the test of time, other than for the ease of imposing tariffs on US spirit exports: http://capreform.eu/trump-ii-tariffs-and-the-eu-agri-food-sector/

As the EU seeks to expand and diversify its trade deals, it is evident that concerns about agriculture are a potential obstacle to its scope of action.   Discussions with Australia collapsed in 2023 over beef exports, although they could be revived after its general election next month.

Notwithstanding von der Leyen’s ambitions to secure new deals, the recent history of EU trade talks underscores how difficult it will be to consummate meaningful alliances.  Brussels has struggled to clinch agreements in recent years because of sensitivities in its 27 member states over agricultural products. 

Although the bloc has a €63bn trade surplus in agri-food, it does not want to allow more chicken, beef and sugar in after huge protests by farmers over the past two years. France and several other countries, for example, have yet to ratify a deal with Canada signed in 2016 because it would allow more beef imports. 

Paris, Vienna and The Hague have yet to back the Mercosur accord, saying they need greater protection for farmers, although it contains a mechanism to choke off imports if there is market disruption.

EU budget format changes and their implications for the CAP

Proposals for changes to the EU budget format that could affect the CAP are discussed in depth by Professor Alan Matthews: http://capreform.eu/fitting-the-cap-into-the-next-mff-long-term-budget/

Both the Budget and the CAP are very complex and technical issues so considering them alongside each other is almost mind blowing, even for those with some expertise in the area.

However, the take home message from Professor Matthews is: 'there is limited scope to improve the effectiveness of CAP spending by redesigning the MFF, which reinforces the need for a greater focus on the CAP regulations themselves.'

The underlying issues are very familiar and have been around for decades.   Nevertheless, they require fresh consideration.